Poll: Bush leads Kerry in Minnesota

Posted by Peter

Pioneer Press, MPR results differ from Star Tribune

In the past few days the Star Tribune had a poll showing that Kerry was up by 9 in Minnesota. The Star Tribune roundly criticized their critics saying that their methodology was sound, and the numbers were accurate. Never mind that they have a history of being way off... Could their numbers be fake along the lines of the CBS memos - and will they come out with a defense saying that they were fake, but the sentiment of the numbers was still accurate? (kidding of course)...

From the Pioneer press today:

As President Bush launches a three-city bus trip across Minnesota today, a new poll shows that for the first time he has a lead - albeit a very narrow one - over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the state.

The Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio poll, conducted Sept. 11-14, shows 46 percent of Minnesota voters would now vote for Bush, while 44 percent support Kerry. Since the president's lead is within the poll's 4-percentage point margin of error, that makes the race here a tossup.

Only 1 percent of the respondents favor independent candidate Ralph Nader, and 9 percent are undecided.

While Bush's support has increased by 1 percentage point since the last Pioneer Press/MPR poll in July, Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

"This survey is good news for President Bush, and it confirms that Minnesota is in play," said political scientist Larry Jacobs, director of the 2004 Election Project at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute. "It helps to explain why he's visiting again and why we're going to see him in the future."


The results contrast sharply with a Minnesota Poll published Wednesday by the Star Tribune that showed Kerry leading Bush, 50 percent to 41 percent.

The results of the two polls probably varied because they used slightly different methods and ways of identifying likely voters, said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the Pioneer Press/MPR survey.

Minnesota Republican Party Chairman Ron Eibensteiner last week asserted that the Star Tribune has historically undercounted GOP voters in its polls, a charge that officials at the newspaper adamantly denied.

Update: From CNN: USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll Shows Bush and Kerry in Dead Heat in Minnesota

Sept. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP have released the results of a poll of likely voters in the battleground state of Minnesota. The results show that of likely voters in that state, George W. Bush and John Kerry each have 45% of the vote, with Ralph Nader receiving 5% of the vote.


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